expected offensive damage/day
Better spell accuracy, save DC, Acid Splash affinity damage, and AC.
Disposable V2 experiment · frozen scenario
ASI or War Caster?
This compares two level-8 Draconic Sorcerers across one day of three four-round combats. It is a bounded explanation test, not a universal feat ranking.
Headline: War Caster leads by 4.86 damage/day
That result assumes the enemy attacks and then leaves your reach once in every combat. The sensitivity result below shows why that assumption matters.
Keep my strategy
Both choices use Quickened Witch Bolt + Acid Splash and Press the attack. Only the character choice changes.
expected offensive damage/day
Reactive Shocking Grasp and stronger concentration saves overcome the lower Charisma and AC here.
Where the +4.86 comes from
| Sequential contribution | War Caster − ASI | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Attack accuracy | −2.16 | Charisma 19 lowers spell attacks. |
| Save DC / Acid Splash | −7.01 | More targets save against Acid Splash. |
| Elemental Affinity | −6.42 | Acid Splash adds +4 instead of +5. |
| AC / Shield context | −0.22 | Lower AC causes slightly more hits and concentration pressure. |
| Concentration advantage | +1.77 | More Witch Bolt intervals survive. |
| Reactive Spell | +18.90 | Three expected Shocking Grasp opportunities per day. |
| Innate context / resources / residual | 0.00 | Held fixed or already carried by the causing row; exact residual is zero. |
| Total | +4.86 |
Protect concentration instead
If both choices use Shield only when it converts the hit, War Caster leads by 1.60 damage/day—near the experiment’s 1 damage/day materiality boundary.
ASI
171.55 offense · 7.50 damage prevented
0.53 less offense than Press
171.55 offense · 7.50 damage prevented
0.53 less offense than Press
War Caster
173.15 offense · 7.92 damage prevented
3.80 less offense than Press because Shield consumes Reactive Spell’s Reaction
173.15 offense · 7.92 damage prevented
3.80 less offense than Press because Shield consumes Reactive Spell’s Reaction
Adapt my strategy
Best of four declared packages under this scenario—not the best possible strategy.
ASI
Uplift from its own primary: 0.00
Quicken + Press
172.08Uplift from its own primary: 0.00
War Caster
Uplift from its own primary: +5.21
Awaken + Press
182.16Uplift from its own primary: +5.21
The assumption that changes the answer
| Reactive Spell opportunity | Primary result in all 9 attack/damage cells | Margin range/day |
|---|---|---|
| 0% of combats | ASI wins 9/9 | −14.54 to −12.38 |
| 50% of combats | ASI wins 9/9 | −5.09 to −2.93 |
| 100% of combats | War Caster wins 9/9 | +4.36 to +6.52 |
The tested attack bonuses were +5, +7, and +9; normal-hit damage was 8, 14, and 24. No exact crossover is inferred between the three opportunity points. Under Protect, the +5 attack / 8 damage / 100% opportunity cell is effectively tied at +0.9194 for War Caster.
Scenario assumptions and authored exclusions
- One target: AC 15, Dexterity save +3.
- Three combats, four rounds each, with one Short Rest after Combat 1.
- At the start of Round 2, one enemy attacks at +7 for 14 damage (28 on a critical hit), then leaves reach.
- Four level-1 slots are the binding Witch Bolt/Shield pool; future openers are reserved.
- Normal weapon/unarmed opportunity attacks are deliberately declined.
- No enemy HP, initiative, movement AI, positioning, resistance, party members, or arbitrary strategy search.
Unmodeled or non-quantified benefits
War Caster’s Somatic Components benefit is real but unquantified because this specimen keeps a hand free. The result is not a general comparison of every use of either feat.
Weighted mechanics and resources
| Primary metric | ASI | War Caster |
|---|---|---|
| Combat damage C1 / C2 / C3 | 57.58 / 57.35 / 57.16 | 59.00 / 58.98 / 58.97 |
| Incoming damage taken | 25.20 | 27.30 |
| Concentration saves / failures | 1.65 / 0.36 | 1.80 / 0.09 |
| Expected Witch Bolt repeats | 8.56 | 8.90 |
| Level-1 slots spent | 3.32 | 3.09 |
| Sorcery Points spent / restored / remaining | 6 / 2 / 4 | 6 / 2 / 4 |
| Reactive Spell casts / Reactions spent | 0 / 0 | 3 / 3 |
Representative four-round branch
- Round 1: spend 2 Sorcery Points and one level-1 slot; Quickened Witch Bolt establishes concentration even on a miss; Action Acid Splash; no repeat.
- Round 2: incoming attack → damage → concentration save; War Caster may use Reactive Spell when the target leaves; then Acid Splash plus automatic Witch Bolt repeat if concentration held, otherwise reservation-limited Action recast.
- Rounds 3–4: Acid Splash plus automatic repeat while the current Witch Bolt casting remains active.
Verification and computational shape
- Exact resolver vs independent oracle: all four exact margins inside the oracle’s 95% intervals; primary N=100,000 and half-width 0.0987.
- Microcases: resolver 23/23; external oracle binding 22 full and one partial testability limitation (Short Rest boundary injection).
- Mutation coverage: 17/17 load-bearing families. Decomposition residual: exactly 0 for all four packages.
- Full sensitivity: 216 exact runs; observed command wall time about 5.4 seconds on the owner’s development machine.
- Headline peak states before/after merging: 16 / 8 for War Caster Quicken + Press; terminal states: 4.
- Merge key: combat, round, cursor, level-1 slots, Sorcery Points, free/restoration resources, concentration spell/cast round, Innate duration, Reaction/Action/Bonus Action, slot/Quicken/recast flags, and pending threat.
Separate Flame Blade composition probe
Flame Blade is representable as a local effect: one dedicated level-2 slot, Bonus Action cast, sole concentration state, then a later 3d6 Fire + Charisma melee spell attack. It replaces Witch Bolt atomically; it is not added to this comparison.
Your task: Choose the option you would take for this character and explain why. Please use the result without coaching.